THINKING ABOUT FUTURE OF OUR HEALTH

Past achievements, though are indeed remarkable, also raise questions about where we're going. Will the future of our health rest solely in the hands of researchers, technological wizardry, and pharmaceutical houses? What roles will public health practitioners and the health care system play? What will our own role be in health promotion and disease prevention in the twenty-first century? Interviews with leading experts in health-related fields offer some clues.

• New drugs. By 2010, experts predict a whole new arsenal of medicines for diseases such as Alzheimer's and multiple sclerosis, which defy treatment today. Genetically targeted drugs will home in on certain conditions, and new, slow-release vaccinations will control diseases such as diabetes.
• Cancer. By the year 2015, cancer deaths are expected to drop by 21 percent, with 13 percent fewer people ever getting cancer. Although many of our cancer-producing behaviors, such as smoking, will persist, we will have better methods of genetic screening for risk, targeted vaccines that control certain cancers, and less invasive treatments. Cancer treatment will be less debilitating.
• Bacteria and infectious diseases. Infectious diseases are the number one cause of death worldwide, with emergent/ resurgent diseases on the increase. By 2010, a new strain of antibiotics will provide improved prognosis for resistant diseases, but an as yet undiscovered virus may have the potential to wipe out over one third of the world's population.
• Spirituality. Spirituality training will become a common element of traditional medical training. Insurers will reimburse it, and medical schools will teach alternative medicine.
• Heart disease. As baby boomers age, heart disease will boom, but better diagnostic tests will exist and better drug treatment will be developed, including proteins that create small arteries when main arteries are blocked.
• Colds and flu. Although there won't be a cure for the cold in 2010, new vaccines will cut the cost of inoculating a child in a developing country from 100 dollars to 10 cents, and drugs will provide great relief for many. However, a pandemic flu also is projected.
• Aging. By 2010, advances in medicine will include a "Methuselah" gene, which currently doubles or triples lifespan in roundworms; calorie-restricted meals that increase longevity; and proteins that might halt the brain declines found in Alzheimer's disease.
• While it's clear that we've come a long way, the possibilities for health and well-being in the future defy the imagination. Living longer, living more disease-free years, and injecting more quality into the extra years of life will be major goals of the future.

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